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craigb

Apparently, it's gone...

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Yes, I'm referring to Toddskin's topic.  While I do believe it had run its course, started to go wild and should have been locked, there was good information in there that is now lost.

No need to take it any further, but I did want to add something I just calculated for others during lunch:

Looking at today's statistics, I'm seeing 1,088 cases of COVID-19 in the US with 31 deaths (source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). This equates to almost exactly the same mortality rate as shown in the video I linked to earlier (2.8%).

Sure, this will continue to spread for a while and more deaths will be attributed to it but, as of now, with 327.2 million people in the US, this means you have less than a 1 in 10.5 million chance of dying from the virus. For perspective, you have a 1 in 700,000 chance of dying due to being hit by lightning.

So, be safe (it's about time people started paying more attention), but don't be fooled into thinking this is worse than all the toxicity already in everything or all the deficiencies in things like food and water. These are FAR more of a threat.

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1 hour ago, craigb said:

For perspective, you have a 1 in 700,000 chance of dying due to being hit by lightning.

It depends what you're doing, ya?

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59 minutes ago, SteveStrummerUK said:

It depends what you're doing, ya?

Always.

And if that happens to be a girl from Portland, suffocation has a high probability. 😆

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 I live in an area of bad drivers.  I think my chances of dying as a pedestrian are far greater. 

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45 minutes ago, kitekrazy said:

 I live in an area of bad drivers.  I think my chances of dying as a pedestrian are far greater. 

We definitely have that problem around here!  Besides the majority of people who show no sign that they ever took a driver's test before getting their license; add in a lot of missing sidewalks; and kids who tend to wear dark colors, not pay attention while staring at their phones and who, apparently, think nothing can hurt them.  Because of this combination, we've had a few fatalities in just the last couple of weeks.  Two kids and an 80-year old woman in separate pedestrian events.  And that doesn't even count a nasty one from last week where a lady who was running late turned onto the wrong lane of a two lane road before plowing head-on into another vehicle.  According to the accounts, one car was going 50 mph (the speed limit is 45 mph) and the lady going the wrong way was going somewhere between 60 mph and 80 mph!  That's like hitting a brick wall at up to 130 mph...  They hit so hard that one engine actually was knocked out of a car and was rolling down the road!  Completely senseless, but the worst part is that both cars were carrying children.  The two Moms and, at least three of the children in the cars were immediate fatalities.  I heard that two others that were in the backseat of one vehicle (a mini-van), are in the hospital in critical condition.

Maybe, upon reflection, if only this virus panic had started a week earlier, the all would have stayed home and still be alive...

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 Way too many situations of people driving the wrong, even on major highways.   I don't get that.   They also took Drivers Ed out of public schools in favor of making kids more  efficient in math and science.   Car insurance is high where I live.  It costs more than when I lived in the Chicago suburbs.

 Maybe those reckless drivers thought they had the virus and hurried for medical attention.

I fear walking in our local grocer parking lot.  I think the elderly have this attitude of screw you pedestrians. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, kitekrazy said:

I think the elderly have this attitude of screw you pedestrians. 

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12 hours ago, craigb said:

Sure, this will continue to spread for a while and more deaths will be attributed to it but, as of now, with 327.2 million people in the US, this means you have less than a 1 in 10.5 million chance of dying from the virus.

Be very careful with manipulating "statistics" in your favor. This statement is all kinds of wrong, especially related to the paragraph directly above it. China turned away a lot of patients and refused to test any postmortem, so the infection/mortality/transmission rates have been downplayed from the get go, and continue to be. Mortality rate has already ramped up to 3.8% world-wide (4200 out of 115,000 as of the Tom Hanks report six hours ago), and the true numbers are not yet clear. Without a vaccine/cure, the transmission statistics are critical... especially when suddenly there are one-off cases who were very likely spreading it before they got symptoms and were tested.

Downplaying things that can get people killed is never a good thing.

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1 hour ago, mettelus said:

Be very careful with manipulating "statistics" in your favor. This statement is all kinds of wrong, especially related to the paragraph directly above it. China turned away a lot of patients and refused to test any postmortem, so the infection/mortality/transmission rates have been downplayed from the get go, and continue to be. Mortality rate has already ramped up to 3.8% world-wide (4200 out of 115,000 as of the Tom Hanks report six hours ago), and the true numbers are not yet clear. Without a vaccine/cure, the transmission statistics are critical... especially when suddenly there are one-off cases who were very likely spreading it before they got symptoms and were tested.

Downplaying things that can get people killed is never a good thing.

This x 100.

The media do not understand statistics. Politicians do not understand statistics, other than how to totally misrepresent them. People do not understand statistics. 

Statistics should be left to statisticians, and even then they should get another statistician to check their workings.

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Not really a “mathematician”, I’m a guitar player, no way I was wearing a pocket protector! But I was good at it (not guitar, the math). Stats was the one thing I hated most! When something goes up by 50%, then goes back to the same; it’s a 33% reduction; what?

figures never lie, but liars figure. 

‘nuff said...

t

hey, we could start a pool, how quick do ya think they’ll shut this down?

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I don't trust the news media. Case in point- Aug of 2019. Weather long range US forecast" It looks like we are up for a really bad winter this year" . 

This has been the warmest winter here in my area I can remember. They regularly put out false information or hype existing information to either make a political point or infer things that simply aren't true. They also create "fires" to make you look somewhere other than where you might otherwise look. I hate to go so far as to call it manipulation but it sure looks that way to me.

Statistics and polls are about the most unreliable things you can imagine. Just look at the DAW poll. lol. 

I realize that this virus is something that has the potential to go from bad to worse. I also realize that it can be curbed and it isn't the end of the world. I  tend to think that some of the actions in my area are probably overkill for what this is. For one thing, if you get the virus you aren't automatically marked as having no hope. A fairly large number of those who get it seem to recover without any kind of outside help. China closed everything for two weeks and things seem to be in recovery there as I type this. China is where the virus is said to have originated from.

If it were really as bad as some say it is here in the US, everyone would know someone who has it, even if it is a few people down the line. In other words, someone who knows someone you know has it or knows someone who does. Right now in my area there was only one distant reported case. This is out of thousands and thousands of people.  It might get worse before it gets better. Probably will. I see it settling down in the near future though. Remember this is if you believe all of the info your are being given which most of us can't confirm.

 

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1 hour ago, Starise said:

If it were really as bad as some say it is here in the US, everyone would know someone who has it, even if it is a few people down the line. In other words, someone who knows someone you know has it or knows someone who does. Right now in my area there was only one distant reported case. This is out of thousands and thousands of people.  It might get worse before it gets better. Probably will. I see it settling down in the near future though. Remember this is if you believe all of the info your are being given which most of us can't confirm.

  1. The virus has a 5-14 day incubation period. So you might have the virus and not know it.
  2. Initially the reported cases will be in clusters ... until it starts spreading more and more. And it will.
  3. It will get worse before it gets better.
  4. The is no reason to believe it will be "settling down in the near future". Unless you mean in several months time.
  5. I'm more concerned with what's happening in the UK.
Edited by Wibbles

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18 hours ago, craigb said:

For perspective, you have a 1 in 700,000 chance of dying due to being hit by lightning.

You have a higher chance of being killed by a meteor/space debris than you do from being hit by lightning.

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24 minutes ago, Wibbles said:
  1. The virus has a 5-14 day incubation period. So you might have the virus and not know it.
  2. Initially the reported cases will be in clusters ... until it starts spreading more and more. And it will.
  3. It will get worse before it gets better.
  4. The is no reason to believe it will be "settling down in the near future". Unless you mean in several months time.
  5. Don't get your info from Dumbo J.
  6. I'm more concerned with what's happening in the UK.

I guess we'll know more in 14 days.  I'll come back to this in two weeks.

I think it will get worse until it gets better. All depending on what your definition of "worse" is. Anything worse than now is a degree of worse worser than now ;)

I don't think it will get better in less than a few months. I can see why you are concerned with the UK. I am not really as concerned as maybe I should be...

I'm going to go home and enjoy my afternoon.  That probably means leaving CNN off. :) Might as well die happy.

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Animation-Oh-No.gif

The point (again), isn't to say this is NOT an issue, only to show that it is actually relatively minor compared other things that the public tends to generally ignore.

My observation is that "someone" is taking full advantage of this opportunity to cause a LOT of havoc in the daily lives of people and the economy.

I've seen things like this before and many are trial runs of tactics to be used later or a process to get people used to something that would otherwise really shock them into seeing something is wrong...  The fact that the stock markets, currencies, metals AND bonds are all down big-time is another clue.  In a normal market time, there's a see-saw effect - definitely not today!

I just hope I'm not the only person asking why...

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You can't draw conclusions from statistics you don't have. In the US, we have tested less than 0.2% of the population for the virus. 

Based on sample sizes like that, one could conclude that not only are sharks not dangerous, they probably don't even exist. Ask anyone in Nebraska if they've ever seen one.

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18 minutes ago, bitflipper said:

You can't draw conclusions from statistics you don't have. In the US, we have tested less than 0.2% of the population for the virus. 

Based on sample sizes like that, one could conclude that not only are sharks not dangerous, they probably don't even exist. Ask anyone in Nebraska if they've ever seen one.

Er ... 0.2% of the population is a pretty large sample size.

I think you would be surprised by how small a sample size is needed.

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37 minutes ago, David Sprouse said:

The odds of one of you killing me is MUCH higher.

And still pretty close to zero!  (Just don't p|ss off Kenny! 😆)

'Twas my original point.  Right now, you are more likely to die from being attacked by dogs.

Still, I can't wait for this whole thing to run its course!  They are VERY close to closing the bridge between Washington and Oregon, which would mean I won't be able to go onsite to help any of my clients.  Good thing I do most of my work remotely I guess...

Edited by craigb

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