Zolton

Sounds right to me, if the going rate holds up. On the downside, things do tend to slow down a bit overnight. On the upside, every time in September the count needed for the next level hits around 250, there's been a bump up to 20/hour or more -- except for the 14k level, which rolled over on a Sunday. Both weekends and hitting a level tend to slow things down, based on the handful of examples of each, so maybe the best-case scenario would be if a boost rolls the count to 16k in the afternoon tomorrow, and maybe there's a little juice left to squeeze toward 17k before the weekend rolls around. That's a big ask without another signup-alanche, though.

Nope, holding pretty steady since midnight: That's good for about 13/hour, though. Keep up that pace and the count would just edge over 20.1k by the end.

I'm also interested to hear about WS2. I use (well, fiddle with, as a learning hobbyist) a lot of the world music packages from EW (Ra, Silk, Gypsy), but I'd like to eventually wean myself from Composer Cloud with a couple of strategic replacements. In the interest of trying to offer something useful to the conversation, keep an eye on this similar thread over at VI-Control: https://vi-control.net/community/threads/uvi-world-suite-2-40-off.114531/ Only one opinion on WS2 itself so far, but it's another pool of people who may have relevant experience.

Halftime! With 15 days gone and 15 more on deck, the group buy has so far added 4,899 September signups. The count is currently 15,436, so if another 4,899 sign up through the 30th (at the current average rate of 13.6/hour), the final count would be 20,335. That average rate was goosed significantly this morning-through-evening by a ~10 hour surge of signups, to the tune of 766 total today, best of any day of the group buy not named August 30th. If you ignore the "goose" and use the going rate when today started (12.3/hour) to project, the total would be 19,864, or 20k with a slight nudge. If you're thinking "DAW half empty", the lowest rate for a full day in September (the 8th) was 7/hour -- at that rate through the 30th, the final count would be 17,956, call it 18k. If you're more optimistic, you may note that while this latest signup surge was the largest, it's also the 4th in the first 15 days, as shown by the bumps in the average signups/hour line here: The current rush seems to have died down for now (around 13.5/hour since 8pm, after 60/hour for half the day), but there may be more on the way. Looks like some more low-guessers may be knocked off the list before things are done.

Yeah, if you happen to leave the browser tab or there's a network hiccup, the animated counters tend to stop in inappropriate places. It's either a preview of the "new new" math they'll teach in the schools soon, or a sign to reload the page and try again.

The last eight hours have averaged more than a signup per minute, or roughly 5x the rate for the rest of the month: I don't know whose buttons got pushed this morning, but it looks like they got stuck and set to "turbo" mode. That already beats any 12-hour span I've tracked, including the rush at the end of August. Who are these people? Where did they come from? And how many more friends do they have who need 15 free goodies?

Even better -- it's actually 7.

On the subject of pace: the current thousand is clipping along at a pretty good rate, compared to most of the earlier September milestones. I have data for 16 "X hours post milestone" points in the 48 hours after the counts reached 11k, 12k, 13k and 14k, including how many signups were added since the previous milestone was reached: The 13k data is a little crazy -- with the big push, it didn't take much longer than 48 hours to hit the next level. But among the "normal" tiers, the 14k rate is consistently better than the others, from the jump. Maybe even without another huge boost right away, the rates are slowly creeping up over time.

September is 40% finished, and here's where the group buy extenderation stands (short version): In 12 September days, there have been 3,616 signups, an average of ~12.6/hour. If the current average rate holds for the next 18 days, the total count would hit ~19.6k. With any last-minute rush in this scenario, 20k seems reachable. If the rate drops back to ~10/hour on average, the count would hit ~18.5, disregarding any final push. At the lowest rate of any observed 12-hour September period (6.7/hr) the rest of the way, the projected count would be right around 17k. For the more nerdily inclined, in 12-hour increments, the distribution looks like this: For the first week, the pattern appeared fairly clear -- the "base rate" of signups was around 7-10/hour, with a "boost" up to 20/hr or more when the next milestone was in reach. After hitting it, the rate fell slowly back toward the bottom of the range. On the 9th, though, the signups exploded, pushing through 13k and 14k faster than expected -- and the rate hasn't dipped as quickly this time, either. A rate of 10/hour gives 120 signups per 12-hour period. In the table, those periods with total signups far from that "norm" -- under 90 or over 150 -- are highlighted in red and green, respectively. The highs are higher than the lows are low, but it's hard to say how high (or how often) those highs will jump. To reach higher levels, the average counts would need to jog up to about 14/hr (20k), 16/hr (21k), 18/hr (22k), 19.5/hr (23k), 23/hr (24k) or 25/hr (25k). Could it happen? Does the current rate hold? Are there more bumps in store? Will SampleTank ever learn the real identity of the father of her baby SE? Tune in next time to find out on DAWs of Our Lives.

Actually, likely sometime tomorrow, unless things drop off a fair bit. In the past 17 hours, the count has gone up by 208. That's a little over 12/hour, and the last four hours have all beaten that. (Edit: Depending on the time zone, 17 hours from now could be Monday, I realized. But by the "official" time zone, it'll probably roll over on Sunday.)

Nearing the 1/3rd marker of the IK September GASathon, the pace seems to have settled back to around 10-12 signups/hour since around noon. But yesterday was downright loco: By far the feedingest frenzy of the extended deal, the sustained average rate of a signup every two minutes served to: a. push the count over 13k at least a day before the previous rate would suggest, 2. goose the overall September signup rate from around 10/hour over the first eight days to nearly 13/hour and iii. accumulate enough numbers that if only the "baseline" 10/hour rate holds the rest of the way, the count would comfortably top 18k. I don't know whose buttons Peter pushed to coax an "extra" half thousand folks into the fold, but if there are more statgasms like that in store over the next three weeks, it should (continue to) be a fun ride.

Even the worst period -- from around noon yesterday to nine am today -- beat 6/hour on average (barely). That seems to be the baseline, at least until every lost Amazonian tribe and remote Arctic nomads hear of the deal and get in, I guess. Of course, 6/hour only hits 15 or so -- but 26/hour, which the bump pushed the a.m. average to, that'll pull in a busload of bass amps.

The September signup rate is around 10.5/hour. Here's what it would take the rest of the way to get 20 (or more, or less, depending on your sweet spot): Jack that jam, indeed.

In case anyone's interested in some numbers to play with as we while away IK Group Buy Phase 2: Electric Amplitubaloo: We've just completed 20% of September -- 6 days, 144 hours or 12 12-hour periods. Here's how the last of those looks in terms of trends: As noted in the table, the August signup rate was around 17/hour overall, though there were two distinct periods -- the first 20 days or so, where the rate was around 14.5 per hour, and the "Race to 10k" at the end, where the rate averaged around 26.5 per hour. The bad news is that the September rate (Ovr Rate above) isn't in the same neighborhood, currently at around 11 signups/hour. That's boosted by two flurries of 20+ signups an hour over 12-hour periods, each coinciding with a mini-race to the next milestone level. Without those, the rate is closer to 8.5/hour in September. If you're the predicting kind, you could go a lot of ways from here: If the rate stays as it is, with similar ups and downs throughout the month, the pace is good for 18k. If the rate jumps back up to ~14/hour as in early August, the total should hit 20k. If the "bumps" should peter out or the pace slow further, ~8.5/hour the rest of the way would net just over 17k. If the bottom falls out and the worst 12-hour numbers (7/hr) become the norm, the counter would coast to 16k. If there's another feeding frenzy at the end of the month, you could perhaps add a thousand or two to your favorite number above. That seems to be the ballpark, based on September-so-far. Future mileage may obviously vary.

I'd never heard of bax-shop before, but trying to find more info (I like Melda stuff!), the recent reviews seem... mixed on several sites, including the company's Facebook page. The folks at "other site" also have some questions about their pricing/discount rates, though at least one who vouches for the store: https://www.kvraudio.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=8202347#p8202347 Tread carefully, perhaps.

Nah, I'm not predicting; I'm just watching the pretty numbers go by. Speaking of which, there were more signups by noon today than all of yesterday, but the (significant) blip seems to have... um, unblipped in the last couple of hours: Seems a fair chance the September ride is going to be all roller-coastery throughout.

Twenty-four hours into September, it looks like the current pace is around 9 signups/hour, which would land right around 17 freebies if nothing changes*. * Everything changes. All the time. (Plus, Peter may have something up his sleeve.) (Besides pizza grease.) (Aw, now I'm hungry. Booo.)

Yeah, the post counts are pretty different - 1,791 to 1,323 at the moment. Most people seem to be focused on the page count, though. Maybe there's a message in there about Cakewalkers willing to work 33% harder? Or something?

The sane and reasonable part of me understands you two are kidding. Asked to comment, the other 95% of me said: The score's 90 to 89 right now, home team winning. Keep swinging, sluggers.

Oh, no no no. One of my dearest sayings is "Prediction is futile". (It goes hand in hand with another favorite, "Hope is for babies". I'm super fun at parties.) We're in the third phase of the group buy, and the "rampdown data" from the wild rock-all-night throw-your-panties phase was only 8 hours old, or about 1% of the time to come. Here's what those numbers and 14 hours more look like (note the gap in "Hrs left"; all rate calcs are per-hour averages): In a couple of days, we'll have a better idea of the current rate, which should be a decent ballpark to play in -- future disasters, curveballs, additions, subtractions and night-rockin' bouts of panty-throwin' notwithstanding.

It turns out I have one more nerdy spreadsheet left in me. (Who am I kidding? I've always got a nerdy spreadsheet left in me. The laxatives never help.) For still-interested parties / my own amusement, I want to track how far into 25-for-1 territory we may expect to get. The starting point for that is this: As of midnight, the count is 10537. Thirty bonus days times 24 hours means 720 hours to accumulate more signups. The signup rate from the very beginning (9am EST on 8/5, I think) to the "race to 10k" announcement (around noon on 8/26) was 14.6/hour, or about one signup every four minutes. (The rate from start to finish is higher -- 26.4/hour -- due to the mad rush from around midnight on the 29th through early afternoon on the 31th, a period averaging 33.4 signups/hour, better than one every two minutes. Assuming we're not due -- at least in the next four weeks -- for another mad scramble, the "pre-race" rate seems more realistic.) It may also be useful to track the September-only signup rate, which could be -- or not? -- a little or a lot slower. That rate doesn't exist yet, but as a starting point, I used the average rate over the past 9 hours, when signups have slowed considerably. That's 12.44/hour, or around one every five minutes. The last two columns show the estimated final count, based on either the "pre-race" 8/5 rate or the post-10k 9/1 rate of signups. Right now, we're in 19ish-for-1 territory, but with almost no relevant data to lean on. If anyone's interested, I'll post updates periodically to show how the trend is meandering over the course of the month.

The official list of qualifying products is here: https://www.ikmultimedia.com/25gb/ Basically, whatever price you see for an item listed on that page is your signup level. Purchase one, and any other product of that listed price or lower is available as a freebie, up to 10 (right now, but it should grow higher over the next month). Just be careful of two things: (1) you can use Jam Points and/or Gear Credits to shave some cash off most items, if you have them -- but your "signup level" will remain the listed price, regardless of the discount; and (b) a few items are available as purchases to get into the group buy, but not selectable as freebies in quite the same form -- like the 4-item Electromagnetik package, which you could buy to enter at the $149 level, but can only select the 4 individual components as freebies, at the $49 level or higher. I'm not so savvy about the Custom Shop, but that's where you'd buy the Gear Credits to buy items available in the Custom Shop, which gives you an advantage because higher Gear Credit levels can be bought at a discount and further reduced with Jam Points, if you have them. Not all qualifying items are available in the Custom Shop, though -- including Modo Drum -- so it's best to strategize if you go that route.

10,001! Huzzah!

Five or six, probably. Things have slowed down a little from the max, but still kicking along at a relatively high rate. If you take the average signup rate (around 26/hour) from the 7k mark when the "race" started until now, you'd expect to reach 10,470+ by midnight tomorrow. Overall, the average rate of signups today is ~39/hour. We may be in "unstoppable force" territory at this point.

Counter update: 9693 / 307 to go. And 50+ signups/hour (on average) over the past 8 hours. Chugging right along!