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Zolton last won the day on September 16

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  1. I did about a B/B- job of buying only the things I'd planned on, with the theme of helping me learn, organize and/or be more efficient: Atlas 2 Scaler 2 Sononym Unify ...without getting tempted by other shiny discounts -- except for upgrades to SynthMaster and LiquidMusic, which were on my list, but could have waited, and a nifty $7 accordian from Polkasounds (which is really nice, and incidentally includes a bonus deal if you're also on VI-Control, through tonight, I think). But my real once-in-a-millennium Black Friday coup was being awake at 3am Thanksgiving morning to pick up the item displayed below:
  2. I definitely had to do the same, mostly (I think) for some or all of the older SampleTank libs. One odd detail, in case it helps anyone diagnose the issue: after registering in Program Manager and downloading, the libs in question were locked in ST4. But IK had unlocked ST3 for me earlier (so I could import a legacy library a while back), and the same libs worked fine in ST3. But until I ran the serials through Auth Manager, I got no love for them from ST4.
  3. Sorry, sorry -- I was distracted by shiny objects and noisemakers. Here's the latest thoroughly scientific analysis of how the IK GB is going:
  4. I think you'd probably feel right... https://www.pianobook.co.uk/packs/trumpetuba/ ...at home: https://www.pianobook.co.uk/packs/pandemic-pad/
  5. One more for old times' sake -- but I'm not sure you're going to like it: Suddenly, the home team has to play a leeetle bit of catchup.
  6. I dunno. Undiagnosed OCD, or some sort of childhood head trauma, maybe? I'm not touching it, whatever it is.
  7. I mean, since you asked (and since I'm bored, waiting for some work stuff to finish up): I added a couple of other group buy-discussing sites for extra spice and context. You may extrapolate from these numbers various conclusions regarding "quality", "quantity", "community" or "cacophony" at your leisure.
  8. But it's still number one in our hearts overall page count:
  9. Just in case anyone's still watching the count update to update in October like a plugin-starved hawk, that translates to an hourly rate of ~7 -- minus whatever the 28 September hours after hitting 20k bring. This seems like a good time to thank IK and @Peter - IK Multimedia for a full quarter-year of fun. I fiddled around with the numbers a bunch, because it's a hoot -- but I appreciate the promotion, the support and all the hard work that goes into both. And as someone who had only ST4 SE and a handful of freebies before the group buy, I scored an entire slew of new goodies to learn about and play with. I wound up with four entries, all with fortunate discounts, and somewhere around 22k, I'll run out of wonderful things to discover, for something like 1/80th of the combined list price. That's absolutely mindblowing. It should be a fun winter.
  10. I've taken Peter's direct quote of "Eastern" (many pages back in this thread) as official, which would make the "end of September" the rest of today and all of tomorrow away, around 36 1/2 hours now. I've seen others use the "Days Remaining" counter on the website as a guide, but (a) I've never seen Peter or the site itself claim that's an official "day-turnover" clock; (2) if it were, the GB would end mid-morning on a weekday (aka a "heavy" buy-in day) in the target time zone, which seems unlikely; and (iii) I've assumed they initialized the fancy website numbers at start-of-business on the day they announced it (August 5th), so the countdown counter started countering down then, but they didn't think to readjust it to reflect an end time of midnight.
  11. The pace slowed a bit overnight (from 30+/hour to 20+/hour), but has usually picked up a bit midday (Eastern time). If things stay roughly on course, it looks like the count should hit 20k around midnight tonight, with a full day to spare. If things jump unroughly off course, then it's already down to less than 9/hour needed, which is basically "coasting speed": There are 37 hours to go. If the run-up at the end of August is any guide, the count added 1200+ in the final 36 hours of the month (though it was 700 away from 10k at that point, so there may have been a little more "oomph" behind the final push). At any rate, it seems fairly likely the count may be halfway to 21k by the time October rolls around. Huzzah!
  12. Welp, that's how you flatten a curve (and then twist it backwards like a paper clip): From noon yesterday (hour 84) to noon today (hour 60), a cool 720 signups went in, good for 30/hour. Hitting 19k by midnight tonight would've been a nice pace; as it is, there are 10 hours left to pile the numbers on. The rate needed now is ~16/hour and falling fast. Even if the influx wiggles a bit, going from 18k to 19k took 46 hours and didn't pick up the pace until around 18 hours in. There are 58 hours left for 20k, and a ~5% head start on the last thousand. Numbers are fun!
  13. It's not just you. (At least, I hope it's not just you, or you'd have earned several thousand freebies to sort through today.) Since 9am this morning, the count has averaged about 27/hour. In total, 499 signups were added on the 27th. That's excellent news -- the beginning of the 27th marked four days left in September, with a little over 18.1k signups at the start of the day. So if 500/day is repeated (or 499/day, if you're truly bean-counting) on the 28th, 29th and 30th, the count would coast over 20,000. Here's how things look from the "amp cab half-empty" point of view, where higher values are actually bad: When the "race to 20k" was announced on the 21st, there were 225 hours left in September. From then, a signup rate of ~14.4/hour (blue line) would have reached 20k by the end of the month, but the actual rate was lower than that through this morning. So the "rate needed" crept steadily up, passing 20/hour early this morning. The number of signups "short" of that initial 14.4 ideal rate also grew (orange line), topping 500 additional "needed" signups to get back on course. With around 87 hours left (i.e., 9am this morning), the rate jumped, and by noon was higher than the needed average-- so those lines took a steep turn down. When/if the orange line reaches zero, it means the count has "recovered", and ~14.4 signups/hour the rest of the way would suffice. If the orange line goes negative, the rate needed is even lower. If the blue line hits zero, the count is 20k -- and if it goes negative, then it's bonus time and the count is working toward whatever milestone is revealed for the 21st freebie. TL;DR: As of this morning, the "bump" has arrived. Time to strap in and see how fast -- and how long -- the carousel spins.
  14. Peter said Eastern in August, and I'm assuming it's still the same. I don't think he ever nailed down midnight/11:59PM as the final deadline, but I remember at least one post where his counting logic (e.g., saying "four hours to go" at 8pm Eastern) made it seem that's the case. I haven't seen any official-ish info that's inconsistent with that theory, though there are people who appear to be counting down differently based on other (non-Peter-provided, to the best of my knowledge) hints.
  15. In case anyone's interested in a more "holistic" view of where we're at in the plod toward 20k, here's a picture of the absolute nerdiest way I've looked at the September data: It's sort of a poor man's probability map. The rows represent 12-hour intervals from midnight on 9/1 to midnight today, and the columns are rates -- from 6/hour to 24/hour. The grid itself shows the projected total, given the count at each time point (e.g., 10537 at the top, or 18132 at the bottom), if the signups average each rate for the rest of the way. Each color represents values within intervals of 1000 -- the light green is 18k, medium red is 19k, medium yellow is 20k, etc. I've put a little box around the range where the September count has been -- from around 9/hour to 14/hour. If that rate doesn't change, there's a good chance the count will hit 19k (i.e., most of the values in the bottom row are colored red for 19k), but not 20k. Right now, reaching 20k would take an average of at least 20/hour. If the rate falls back to 9/hour or less, the count is in danger of falling short of 19k. Anything outside those possibilities is currently literally off the map -- or outside the 6/hr - 24/hr range shown here, anyway. It's interesting (to me, at least) that a 14/hour average -- the last column within the box -- would have been enough to reach 20k until just a few days ago. The rate hasn't changed so much since then (other than not being "bumped" for a while), but those yellow 20k squares have been veering off to the right of the chart of late. It'll be pretty cool if they get dragged back in the eight time windows left.
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