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craigb

Apparently, it's gone...

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Posted (edited)

As of right now, the highest total I can find is 6,687 deaths total since the start of the outbreak.  The estimates from last June put the population of the World at 7,577,130,400.  So, with 360,000 people being born each day, and about 151,600 dying each day (excluding those affected by COVID-19), that's 208,400 new lives being added to that total every day...  Guessing that the last estimate was about three quarters of a year ago, let's add 275 more days' worth of growth to that figure.  That gives us 57,310,000 additional people to add.  Here's the math:

7,577,130,400 + 57,310,000 = 7,634,440,400‬ people currently alive Worldwide.

Now subtract the half-a-billion that UN Agenda 21 implies and we get 7,134,440,400 people that somehow must be removed from the population total.  If we take the 6,687 COVID-19 deaths into account, then there's "only" 7,134,433,713‬ to go (plus the daily additions and assuming birth rates don't go up from sequestering everyone inside their houses with nothing to do).

Considering many scientists believe the Earth can only handle between 9 and 10 billion people at max capacity, this virus better kick things up soon!  Since the first case was back in November of last year, overall, we're now up to about 55 deaths per day.  This needs to increase by about 208,350 deaths per day just to stop population growth! 

Hey, I'm open to anyone who has numbers that truly show this to be the horrific, potential "Plague of the Millennium!!!" that it's being taken as.

Actually, as I look at the birth and population records I just looked up along with what scientists say is the maximum capacity for humans on this planet, I could almost make the argument that we DO need to reduce the numbers a lot!  (No, I won't.)

All of that said, I hope everyone here (and their friends and families) stay safe!

Edited by craigb

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5 hours ago, Wibbles said:

Ooooh ... politics. :D

Yeah this thread may not last long. 

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1 minute ago, kitekrazy said:

Yeah this thread may not last long. 

Everything vibrates, so everything is music.  Which means that EVERYTHING is music related!  🙂

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30 minutes ago, craigb said:

Everything vibrates, so everything is music.  Which means that EVERYTHING is music related!  🙂

Nope.  I should be paying attention to my Udemy videos and auditioning the recent downloads instead of participating in this.

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It's all good guyz , just have fun in your houses and do what you have to do ..... history is the best teacher ...and history isn't in favor of either UN and all western media , know fact , nothing to debate ..... starting from there , being sceptikal other the official version isn't something to be labled conspiracy , just memory at worst lol 

 

Personnaly time to finsih my last project and maybe start another one .... maybe we could start a common one ?

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Apparently, it's already gone....

 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, SteveStrummerUK said:

I made that 🙄

Way back when John and I were like besties 😮

Now, the two you are just 'bosom' buddies?

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11 hours ago, kitekrazy said:

I'm out 2 weeks of work.

Maybe more, depending on your situation. One of the absurd aspects of the quarantined cruise ships was the idea that they could release everyone after a two week quarantine--the assumption being that infected people would be showing symptoms/testing positive by that time. In fact new infections were occurring daily throughout the quarantine as the virus spread between passengers. Assuming that newly infected passengers would not show up for two weeks would imply that every day, when a new case was found the quarantine for the entire ship would need to be reset and run for another two weeks, until everyone who was susceptible had been exposed.

If you are just hiding out for two weeks, or if your employer is just trying to keep his workers from infecting each other and their customers, then it is likely that new cases will be occurring daily throughout that period, and the exposures that the plan was trying to avoid will just start again when everyone goes back to work. In most areas of this country we can expect far more active cases will be circulating (prevalence) in the next month than in the next week, and the prevalence may well be more in six months than it is now. 

If you are self-quarantined due to a known exposure to an infected person, then that should be sufficient to determine if you will develop symptoms, but you could still be an asymptomatic carrier--the jury is out as to how common this is. If symptoms develop then you will not know if you have a Covid-19 infection or any of the many viruses that have similar symptoms. This is why easily accessible targeted testing is important. If you have mild disease or even if you are in respiratory distress from a viral or secondary bacterial pneumonia, it makes no difference in the medical interventions that will be needed to treat you. It makes a great deal of difference in terms of what the hospital needs to do to protect personnel and other patients from catching Covid-19 at their facility. I recently heard that a hospital had sent twenty one nurses home for a two week quarantine because they had been exposed to a Covid-19 patient. If that happens a surprisingly few times at a given hospital it will be impossible to find enough nurses to treat the patients, as they will all be home waiting for symptoms. If personal protective equipment is available and a system that will make it highly unlikely that those working with infected patients will become infected themselves, then such quarantine could be avoided. If testing were widely available, then personnel who test negative after a much shorter quarantine period would suffice. This presupposes that such symptoms and tests can be confidently relied upon. 

It would be useful from an epidemiological standpoint to do experimentally random testing of the population to learn where and how fast the disease is spreading and to calculate the true case fatality rate, but it will probably be some time before testing the worried well on demand can be justified as a rational use of limited testing capacity. In the meantime we will be quarantining many with no benefit and failing to quarantine many who should be. At this point, we have no reasonable expectation that the measures available will stop an epidemic in its tracks, although it may result in a lower infection rate at the end, but rather that we will reduce the daily case load at treatment centers so that patients will be able to receive lifesaving treatment--thus a lower death rate even if not a lower total of infections. The unfortunate consequence of this lifesaving strategy is that new infections will be occurring for a longer period of time as people who were shielded from early infection pick up the disease at a later stage in the epidemic. 

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Posted (edited)

Funny how many people (not pointing any fingers at anyone) dismiss these 'small' numbers; if this number was the work an evil doer on the run, I get the feeling the general reaction would be quite different.

Also, people seem to be more receptive when a natural disaster (e.g. earthquake/tsunami/hurricane) affects this many people.

Edited by antler
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Well, as Stalin said, "One death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic."

All I know is that, if I'm five times more likely to die from a snake, AND I was one to freak out and had to be ultra-prepared, I would be doing my best to have anti-venom on-hand and avoiding any place where there's the slightest chance of a snake being.  When you're dealing with something that has a worldwide survival rate of 97.2% (practically 100% if you're young and/or healthy), then I have FAR more important things to worry about.

Yes, SO FAR, less than 6,700 people have died (who knows how many would have died from other reasons within a few months - most were elderly and already sick), but that's since November.  This is only about 700 more than those who have committed suicide over the last two days!  I'm pretty sure an alarming percentage of those were teenagers who have given up hope.  As far as I'm concerned, THAT is a much bigger issue that people should be trying to fix!

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Posted (edited)

I'm watching this , and guyz this is EPic 

@ 1h27 he states about viruses produce to sell vaccin .... lol  in the green book he states that Medecine should be free , cures should be free ..it will solves everything ... and discourage bizness around it (In lybia No taxes , health and school was free ... no intresets , what a dictature !! lol capitalsim nightmare for sure !!)

 

Take the time guyz and listen , don't be fooled by propanganday , some serious questions asked here that should be taken in consideration (climate / capitalsim regulation / constant wars ...ect )

 

Grab ya balls and have the courage to watch ./... you don't have to like the man , just imagine anybody going there and adresses those questions 

 

 

 

Edited by Zo

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9 minutes ago, craigb said:

avoiding any place where there's the slightest chance of a snake being. 

That's what Eve said.

Adam too?

Snakes can be anywhere, and so there is that too.

It's easy to proselytize when you never leave the safety of your controller.

Smart people can be ignorant too.

 

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6 minutes ago, Christian Jones said:

And for f***s sake, don't sit there and watch Outbreak.

Watch Sling Blade instead. Some folks call it a Kaiser blade. 

Or play Patient Zero in Hitman. 

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16 hours ago, craigb said:

Hey, I'm open to anyone who has numbers that truly show this to be the horrific, potential "Plague of the Millennium!!!" that it's being taken as.

 

The virus is only just taking off, your calculations are very premature. We will find out in 6 months what the situation is. There are many ways it can go. I think the US will have a big problem, most of the infectious travelers in Australia have come from the US not China and that's considering we had many, many Chinese coming here.

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3 hours ago, Tezza said:

The virus is only just taking off, your calculations are very premature. We will find out in 6 months what the situation is. There are many ways it can go. I think the US will have a big problem, most of the infectious travelers in Australia have come from the US not China and that's considering we had many, many Chinese coming here.

That is true.

I'm hearing that, outside of the elderly (especially with preexisting conditions), the most at-risk groups will be smokers (of any kind) and the obese.

However, I'm also hearing that the panic created will cause much worse issues than the actually, highly survivable virus.  Just combine all the current over-buying with a lack of production and the inability to replenish stock due to lock-downs (potentially between states, which is being considered here), and your basic idiot will be off the rails in a couple of weeks.

That said, even if it does somehow make THIS scary list, it still won't have as much of an effect on the World's population as War and Politics has had.

 

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The assumption that everything will return to normal after a period is just an assumption. It might but it might not. Even if it follows past flu like pandemics it will last 2 years or thereabouts. The difference in a modern pandemic now is the size of the population which is over 3 times larger than the last flu like pandemic. The longer it goes for and the bigger the population, the more likely different strains will develop through the increased frequency of mutation. With the 1918 pandemic the virus changed, it started killing children and the elderly and then switched to killing perfectly healthy people in their 20's to 40's.

The population of the US is 327 million, the figure being quoted as the expected number infected is 60% which takes it to about 196 million. If the fatality rate is around 3.4% and the hospitalization rate is around 15%. Say 4% for fatality then these figures mean for the US there will be about 8 million dead and 28 million requiring hospitalization. If it peaks without control these figures could double or triple. If the control methods work and they get a vaccine then the figure could be lower.

I think the best defense is to make sure your lung function is up to speed since pneumonia and suffocation seem to be the leading cause of death from the destroyed lung cells and pus preventing the alveoli from doing their work. Aerobic exercise might be good. I've started running again to make my cardiovascular system more efficient in general. I figure I'm probably going to get it at some point so may as well be ready for it.

 

 

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My wife works in Out-Patient services and the medical staff is already swarmed.  Media and people in general are not handling this well.  Is it that hard to start thinking about other people. At one of the other Out-Patient offices a guy comes in and yells out his friend tested positive and he needs to be  seen. Firstly on the outside door written in English and Spanish says if you think you were exposed to Covid-19 don't come inside, go back to your car and call this special phone number. ***** people only thinking about themselves. So now the whole front staff because he was yelling is not there for two weeks and they might have to close this office. because not enough staff to go around. 😠

Only so much you can do but common sense is out the window!

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The comment the guy makes at 3:05 is funny, especially since this is a music forum.

 

 

 

 

 

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