craigb Posted March 12, 2020 Author Share Posted March 12, 2020 ????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstrEd Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 He is screwed because his tie is flipped and that is one of the tell-tale signs of being infected ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigb Posted March 12, 2020 Author Share Posted March 12, 2020 *NEWSFLASH!* YOU have been infected with the "LIFE" virus! It has a 100% mortality rate! How you choose to use the 1 to 43,830 days you have left are completely up to you! Deal with it! ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennywtelejazz Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, craigb said: The point (again), isn't to say this is NOT an issue, only to show that it is actually relatively minor compared other things that the public tends to generally ignore. My observation is that "someone" is taking full advantage of this opportunity to cause a LOT of havoc in the daily lives of people and the economy. I've seen things like this before and many are trial runs of tactics to be used later or a process to get people used to something that would otherwise really shock them into seeing something is wrong... The fact that the stock markets, currencies, metals AND bonds are all down big-time is another clue. In a normal market time, there's a see-saw effect - definitely not today! I just hope I'm not the only person asking why... This is my concern also . 2 days ago it was one thing or another ... Simple stuff like , how bad is it ? where do you get a test ? who's telling the truth , who's not telling the truth , does anyone actually know the truth ? Now it's a cornucopia of social restrictions in the land of the free and the home of the brave , and many other country's . Wow ..Italy and some other places .. I went to Jr High and High School in New Rochelle NY ....I'm sad to see and hear what happened there .... ............................................................................................................ Here we are about to have closed borders , colleges are going online only , no more school for Johnny or Sally until we get a better grip on this virus ..No more audiences for sporting events and other activities such as concerts, church , no more tv audiences ...ect et ... ^^^^^^^^this was decided yesterday less than 24 hours ago ^^^^^ I can't even fathom the financial burden of how people w child at home that work will handle the maze of changes they will have to confront just to be able to stay healthy and keep a roof over their heads ... Just those adjustments will have a profound effect on the working class and society as a whole ... Then we factor in .....no longer is my brother or sister a friend because they can kill me by not being responsible for their own well being ...the way this is playing out in the media it has people feeling as if they are surrounded by a world filled with hidden assassins... As it is , I don't care for crowds as it is but this is CRAZY ...now people have the power to kill people just by coughing ? Then the leeches come out and try to take advantage of peoples fears ...by selling snake oil or gouging what normal household products our store shelf's had formally had as stock . The talking Orange Corn Muffin opens his mouth and starts spitting out half truths and everybody lines up and joins in on the misinformation feeding frenzy .. The flipping media loves this type of stuff ..I have to say this ...the media is Drama Drunk and there is not enough misfortune or misinformation for them to tell the story objectively and get their fill ...The media has been acting as if they are the new Rock Stars ....to me they are just a bunch of instigators that thrive on stirring the pot and bringing up the dredges of every story angle pretending as if the burning bush told them the truth and they are just passing it on ...to us the sheep ...Yeah Right .... I won't even try to make sense of the world wide money situation ...I know our money is not backed by gold any more and neither is most of the worlds currency ..maybe its time to consider the waiter has just brought us all the check and it's time to pay the bill... Excuse me sir , I need to go out back and fire up the ole printing press ..will you gave me a few mins? I'm a good tipper disclaimer this post is probably gonna end up getting edited down to this typical thing I do after a rant this . Kenny Edited March 12, 2020 by kennywtelejazz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulo Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 9 hours ago, Wibbles said: This x 100. The media do not understand statistics. Politicians do not understand statistics, other than how to totally misrepresent them. People do not understand statistics. Statistics should be left to statisticians, and even then they should get another statistician to check their workings. It's a known fact that 105% of all statistics are made up. Known facts are also 95% made up. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slartabartfast Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 23 hours ago, craigb said: Sure, this will continue to spread for a while and more deaths will be attributed to it but, as of now, with 327.2 million people in the US, this means you have less than a 1 in 10.5 million chance of dying from the virus. For perspective, you have a 1 in 700,000 chance of dying due to being hit by lightning. Wow, CraigB, I did not expect this level of sophistry from someone as sophisticated as you. The numerator you are using is actually only applicable to those who are already dead at the time of your calculation. That number changes hourly and we can safely assume that not all fatal cases are being diagnosed correctly. So your chances of having died, assuming all deaths from Covid-19 are correctly identified, given that you were a US resident may have been as low as you imply. That says nothing about your risk of dying over any fixed period in the future. You correctly note that situation, but then use that rather meaningless figure to put the future risk "in perspective." Quite unlike a black swan event (a single lightning strike on a boat full of girl scouts could double the "risk" of dying from a lightning strike in a year) there is every reason to believe that the current scattered outbreaks will spawn a significant epidemic. In that event the uncorrected risk of death might be one in several hundred or more. For those infected, the risk stratification can be much more sophisticated, and the lethality in those at high risk is likely significantly (an order of magnitude?) greater than typical influenza seasons. The point of being alarmist, rather than fatuously reassuring, at this early stage is not to say that the world should grind to a halt because a relatively few people have died, but that it should change in a major way to mitigate the rate of future illness. We may be lucky and avoid a situation where millions die, and we could be very lucky and have that happen even without major cultural and economic displacement, but it is highly likely that some alteration in the progress of the epidemic can be had by accepting (or perhaps pretending to accept in some cases) that we are at significant risk of infection and altering our behavior appropriately. The public health community, when they are being honest, are not promising that the spread of this disease can be stopped by informal quarantine, social distancing or hand washing. In a population with no immunity from previous infections or vaccination, the best we can probably hope for is that we can spread the same ultimate number of infections over months rather than a few weeks and thus avoid a tragic overloading of the health care system. There are roughly 75000 general ICU beds and perhaps 100,000 ventilators available in the US, and if every infected health care worker is out of action for a couple of weeks, there is no way to replace their skills with currently trained but unemployed workers. In Wuhan patients requiring ventilators for two or more weeks sometimes made a full recovery, although they would have died without that intervention. Deciding who should get lifesaving treatment when all the resources are in use is not a decision I would like to make. In a medical resource shortage, not only the Covid-19 patients, but anyone who requires their bed or ventilator for a completely unrelated reason may die. In the usual course of events an epidemic will peak rapidly then gradually die out as susceptible hosts have all become infected or until herd immunity becomes significant as infected (now immune) survivors provide firebreaks to the chain of infection. Avoiding the early peak is the strategy at present. I recently heard Mayor de Blasio wonder aloud if we should be closing schools, since the young seem to suffer very low mortality from the infection. That shows an appalling lack of understanding about the issue. Thousands of infected students may very well suffer nothing more than a cold, but they are going home from what is essentially a landlocked cruise ship to close contact with sick or elderly relatives. This is really a situation where those at low risk need to pay the limited cost of containment in order to spare those who may succumb. Unlike China, we probably cannot expect mobs of your neighbors to nail your door shut if they think you are infected, but I think we should expect our fellow citizens to exercise precautions even if they do not expect to suffer death themselves. An epidemic does not care about ideology, ignorance, or bravado. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Screed Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, propriae iudicabit reformidans at nam. Pro ne delectus repudiandae comprehensam. Vim at vide verear, ei vis dicam detraxit reprimique, ornatus scribentur disputando vim id. In pro iuvaret scaevola, sed ex patrioque evertitur similique. No mei periculis necessitatibus. Veniam nonumy id his. Option splendide eam ad, ei admodum singulis argumentum pri, labores deleniti deseruisse mea et. Id pertinax assueverit sed. An decore accusam eum, dico appetere assentior et sit. Vim no diam maiorum eloquentiam. Eripuit pericula his ad. In duo quaeque labores conceptam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezza Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) Nobody can predict anything accurately about the virus at the moment because it is only just out of the box. It appears at the moment that it has a fatality rate of around 4% and cases double every 6 days without containment. That means 1 in 25 people who get it die, with the vast majority of those who die being those with already compromised immune systems, generally older people with other health conditions. Anything around 10-15% require hospitalization for severe symptoms. These figures don't sound big but they are in fact quite staggering and well beyond any countries standard hospital system to service. It means out of every million people infected, 40,000 will die, and anything around 100 to 150 thousand will require hospitalization. I don't think it's really possible to contain it because in a lot of people, it just presents as a cold and people don't go to their GP because they have a cold. Many will get it, spread it and recover without ever actually being identified as a carrier. Nevertheless, Governments have to try to contain. The figure of expected infections from experts at the moment seems to be around 60% of any given population. The longer a virus is out and about, the more mutations there will be and ultimately it will eventually mutate into something like this: Edited March 13, 2020 by Tezza Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennywtelejazz Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Rem incredibilem, tantum venturam. Kenny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Screed Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Apparently, it's gone... which IT do you speak of? many ITS have gone don't look now but there is another IT coming bigger than the last IT believe me and soon it will be gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Screed Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Tag, you are it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigb Posted March 13, 2020 Author Share Posted March 13, 2020 1 hour ago, slartabartfast said: Wow, CraigB, I did not expect this level of sophistry from someone as sophisticated as you. The numerator you are using is actually only applicable to those who are already dead at the time of your calculation. That number changes hourly and we can safely assume that not all fatal cases are being diagnosed correctly. So your chances of having died, assuming all deaths from Covid-19 are correctly identified, given that you were a US resident may have been as low as you imply. That says nothing about your risk of dying over any fixed period in the future. You correctly note that situation, but then use that rather meaningless figure to put the future risk "in perspective." Quite unlike a black swan event (a single lightning strike on a boat full of girl scouts could double the "risk" of dying from a lightning strike in a year) there is every reason to believe that the current scattered outbreaks will spawn a significant epidemic. In that event the uncorrected risk of death might be one in several hundred or more. For those infected, the risk stratification can be much more sophisticated, and the lethality in those at high risk is likely significantly (an order of magnitude?) greater than typical influenza seasons. The point of being alarmist, rather than fatuously reassuring, at this early stage is not to say that the world should grind to a halt because a relatively few people have died, but that it should change in a major way to mitigate the rate of future illness. We may be lucky and avoid a situation where millions die, and we could be very lucky and have that happen even without major cultural and economic displacement, but it is highly likely that some alteration in the progress of the epidemic can be had by accepting (or perhaps pretending to accept in some cases) that we are at significant risk of infection and altering our behavior appropriately. The public health community, when they are being honest, are not promising that the spread of this disease can be stopped by informal quarantine, social distancing or hand washing. In a population with no immunity from previous infections or vaccination, the best we can probably hope for is that we can spread the same ultimate number of infections over months rather than a few weeks and thus avoid a tragic overloading of the health care system. There are roughly 75000 general ICU beds and perhaps 100,000 ventilators available in the US, and if every infected health care worker is out of action for a couple of weeks, there is no way to replace their skills with currently trained but unemployed workers. In Wuhan patients requiring ventilators for two or more weeks sometimes made a full recovery, although they would have died without that intervention. Deciding who should get lifesaving treatment when all the resources are in use is not a decision I would like to make. In a medical resource shortage, not only the Covid-19 patients, but anyone who requires their bed or ventilator for a completely unrelated reason may die. In the usual course of events an epidemic will peak rapidly then gradually die out as susceptible hosts have all become infected or until herd immunity becomes significant as infected (now immune) survivors provide firebreaks to the chain of infection. Avoiding the early peak is the strategy at present. I recently heard Mayor de Blasio wonder aloud if we should be closing schools, since the young seem to suffer very low mortality from the infection. That shows an appalling lack of understanding about the issue. Thousands of infected students may very well suffer nothing more than a cold, but they are going home from what is essentially a landlocked cruise ship to close contact with sick or elderly relatives. This is really a situation where those at low risk need to pay the limited cost of containment in order to spare those who may succumb. Unlike China, we probably cannot expect mobs of your neighbors to nail your door shut if they think you are infected, but I think we should expect our fellow citizens to exercise precautions even if they do not expect to suffer death themselves. An epidemic does not care about ideology, ignorance, or bravado. Ah, you missed those three words "as of now," so, yes, that's why I used that numerator. I'm side-kick, not psychic. Sure, I expect it to exponentially grow, then die off like all the others have before it, but I'm only trying to shed light on the over-the-top panic being caused by the fear-creating media. I also wanted to point out how things that are far more deadly seem to be ignored because the media hasn't stirred the sheeple into a frenzy on those. Is this really something to be concerned about? Yes! Do I feel that there are some serious hidden agendas from certain people using this event for their own nefarious purposes? Absolutely. Unfortunately, I think this was a bit of a test run to see both how it's handled and to get people used to being sequestered and controlled. I also see an expensive vaccine coming soon. Most people are completely unaware that the FDA is 75% funded by the large pharmaceutical companies (the exact ones they're supposed to be regulating!). This became legal in 1992. This is probably the main reason the FDA will NOT approve anything that prevents or cures - only treatments. Imagine not being allowed to change the oil in your car! "Sorry, you must wait until the engine seizes but, even then, we aren't allowed to fix it, you'll have to come in daily for a band-aid fix that will only make your car barely driveable..." The thing that REALLY makes me nervous is that this is exactly one of the possible ways that was discussed about a year ago to reduce the population of Earth. There have been multiple attempts to cause a war between several of the larger countries (some you would not have heard about from any mass media outlet). So far, any significant event has fortunately been avoided. UN Agenda 21 is still out there for anyone to read, but how they intend to reduce the approximate 7.8 billion people down to 5% of that total, is definitely something that should terrify everyone (but it doesn't seem to even be registering). 178 governments have signed this agenda (to be completed by the year 2030). I can't help but see this virus as a test before a much more virulent strain is released... Sorry. Anyway... I hope everyone stays on this side of the ground and we can get passed all this lunacy soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S.L.I.P. Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 (edited) The cause of my fever... Edited March 13, 2020 by S.L.I.P. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigb Posted March 13, 2020 Author Share Posted March 13, 2020 I'd take that over more cowbell any day! ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveStrummerUK Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Pfft ...... ..... I'd feel sorry for the unfortunate virus that catches me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstrEd Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 56 minutes ago, S.L.I.P. said: The cause of my fever... Wow you really have a thing for nice Guitars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstrEd Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 I worked late tonight and on the way home I stopped at Aldi for a few items. The place was mobbed and the place looked like a war zone. Thankfully they had what I was looking for. But if I wanted Toilet paper, paper towels, tissue etc. they were all gone. The manager was on tonight and I asked her about it. She said they have it covered with a big shipment overnight for most of the items. She was laughing about the crowds saying well my numbers for this and next week will look awesome. She like me doesn't understand the panic to this extent. Sure stock up but really wipe the place clean. My teenage daughters are feeling the brunt of the cancellations of school events. My oldest was suppose to have a field trip to Fermi Lab in Batavia, IL and she was really looking forward to it. This Saturday is Science Olympia at Community College and that also was cancelled. Better safe then sorry. I told her we can schedule a trip ourselves to Fermi Lab in the summer but she has been working for several months on her Science Olympia project and is bummed. Don't know if it will go on this school year. Peace and please wash your hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christian Jones Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 There's definitely somebody(s) somewhere twisting their f'n mustache to this. I agree w/ Craig. At my go-to supermarket here in Seattle it's not toilet paper that's the problem, it's the broken oven in the bakery. For nearly *two weeks* now the bakery has had a sign up on the donut case and the bakery bread wall back there that says, "Our oven just broke so we can't bake anything." Who's on that? When are they gonna fix that f'n thing?! I don't want that massed produced bread loaf they got in the regular bread section. How come nothing's being done about that pos oven? When can I get a Kaiser roll and a Boston cream? I don't need toilet paper, I'll take a f'n shower. When are they gonna bake some f'n bread?! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennywtelejazz Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 (edited) She is so much stronger than the fever ...It can't even harm her . Kenny Edited March 13, 2020 by kennywtelejazz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Screed Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 10 hours ago, Christian Jones said: There's definitely somebody(s) somewhere twisting their f'n mustache to this. I agree w/ Craig. At my go-to supermarket here in Seattle it's not toilet paper that's the problem, it's the broken oven in the bakery. For nearly *two weeks* now the bakery has had a sign up on the donut case and the bakery bread wall back there that says, "Our oven just broke so we can't bake anything." Who's on that? When are they gonna fix that f'n thing?! I don't want that massed produced bread loaf they got in the regular bread section. How come nothing's being done about that pos oven? When can I get a Kaiser roll and a Boston cream? I don't need toilet paper, I'll take a f'n shower. When are they gonna bake some f'n bread?! It's all relative ain't it Christian. I guess this begs the question. Whose relativity is more valid? When one person's relativity interferes with another's relativity there will be consequences, foreseen and unforeseen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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