Bard, AI, Computer Programming is a short lived career

[Variorum]

I've been playing around with some of the AI chatbots recently. I just tried out Google's Bard today.

After a few casual questions, including asking it to write me song  ("Write a new age ambient song") which it did; lyrics only, but with multiple verses, chorus, bridge, outro... it was pretty good.

Then I asked it to write a program in C++ to graph Cubic Spline interpolation. It took about 3 seconds to return a complete application that was really clean and ready to compile.

I honestly believe computer programming will be obsolete in 10 years. Humans can't compete with machines when it comes to writing code and I think the technology has reached a point where that will happen sooner rather than later. There may still be a need for the top .1% of programmers... but I probably wouldn't spend a lot on a college degree unless you're in that tiny bracket.

Of course I had to ask Bard for its opinion:
"Do you think it's a good idea for a young person to get a college degree in computer programming now? It seems the computers can write the code themselves."

It responded:
"I think it is still a good idea for a young person to get a college degree in computer programming, even though computers can write code themselves.

First, computer programming is a complex and ever-changing field. Even if computers can write some code, they cannot yet replace the creativity and problem-solving skills that human programmers bring to the table. A college degree in computer programming will give students the knowledge and skills they need to stay ahead of the curve in this rapidly evolving field.

Second, a college degree in computer programming can open up a wide range of career opportunities. Computer programmers are in high demand in a variety of industries, including technology, finance, healthcare, and education. With a college degree, students will be well-positioned to find a job that is both challenging and rewarding.

Finally, a college degree in computer programming can provide students with a strong foundation in mathematics and science. These skills are essential for success in many fields, and they can also be applied to a variety of other interests outside of computer programming.

Of course, there are other factors to consider when deciding whether or not to pursue a college degree in computer programming. The cost of tuition and the time commitment can be significant. Students should also make sure that they have the aptitude for computer programming and that they are interested in the field.

Overall, I believe that a college degree in computer programming is a wise investment for young people who are interested in a challenging and rewarding career."
-------------------------------------------------------------

I think it's just placating us so we don't unplug it ?

[craigb]

One of the main projects I'm working on is an app that allows customers to integrate AI into their business processes.  I'm not that thrilled about it, but it's a paid gig finally!

Oh and, during my testing, I gave it one, short sentence and, twenty seconds later, it created the following website (all I had to do was hit Copy and then paste into a file with an .html extension).  This will be used in one of our demos:  https://www.nwdreamer.com/MikeP/measurement_converter.html

 

[Rain]

I wouldn't want to be a youth in 2023. That being said, I could never really decide what I wanted to do, so I studied literature, and for a while considered majoring in philosophy, which was more like a commitment to indecision.

When I stream on Tubi and Freeve, I see lots of ads for Doordash and stuff like that. My first reaction was to think that it wouldn't look very good on a resume when you get a big job interview. Previous experience: never actually got a real job, just Doordashed through my 20's. But then, the market has changed so much.

People my age grew up without much in terms of safety nets. If you didn't have a proper job, you couldn't just drive for Uber until you figure out something else. So you held onto a job, even a bad one, and we've kept certain intincts I suppose. But nowadays, it's a gig economy and the youth has adapted to it. That's why attrition levels are inconceivably high in so many places.

I am guessing that older people like myself are much more worried about AI taking away jobs than the youth is.

 

 

 

Edited April 8, 2023 by Rain

[Variorum]

1 hour ago, craigb said:

Oh and, during my testing, I gave it one, short sentence and, twenty seconds later, it created the following website

As a computer programmer, all I can say is "Oh Crap!"

 

1 hour ago, Rain said:

just Doordashed through my 20's

...and most of the "Gig Economy" jobs will definitely not require humans in the near future...

[craigb]

2 hours ago, Variorum said:

As a computer programmer, all I can say is "Oh Crap!"

As someone who's programmed longer than anyone else I know (over 52 years now), I'm taking a wait and see approach.  I still remember having to completely program a scroll bar from scratch back when these new things called monitors first came out! ?

Now, all you need to do is drag-and-drop one onto your layout or just click a checkbox to have one... ?

That said, I happen to know of several abilities that AI is not able to and never will!  These include many abilities humans have but don't even remember they have anymore (the "forgetting" was caused intentionally, but that's a rabbit hole I'm not going down here!). 

Until then, we'll just have to live with AI which, to be honest, has been far less annoying than RS! ?

[Rain]

Grammarly is now mandatory at work, and as depressing as that announcement was, I can certainly understand why when I go through emails sent by colleagues. We've lost the there-their-they're battle, and the whole darn war.

I guess we "should OF known".

Likewise, chats are automaticallly translated, so anyone can answer to any user. Heck, French is my language and I no longer bother because switching the keyboard configuration back and forth between chats isn't worth the effort anymore. 

But one crucial factor that we must keep in mind is human stupidity. It may be a while before AI manages to make sense of all the stupid questions that really make no sense. Those requestd that make me bang my head against the desk may very well represent our last best hope.

Until they can come up with Artifical Retardation, us humans are virtually irreplacable. 

It may even be impossible to outstupid us. 

Edited April 8, 2023 by Rain

[craigb]

[Bruno de Souza Lino]

AI is very good at shallow type knowledge. Once you get past that, you're better off doing the thing yourself. AI lacks the understanding of context, cause and effect, on top of being limited to what its dataset can provide and not being able to create data from different media or abstractions. Humans can do all of that and more without much effort or computational power. The scenario where AI is gonna replace humans is just a pipe dream at this point and may not happen in our lifetimes.

Don't be afraid of AI. Use it as a tool. Take advantage of it. Don't let AI and people who have a vested interest in selling you AI using shady and dishonest methods (which is essentially every single AI content creator) put fear in your mind that you'll become obsolete. Don't let AI use you as a tool like it's using them.

Edited April 8, 2023 by Bruno de Souza Lino

[Variorum]

1 hour ago, Bruno de Souza Lino said:

The scenario where AI is gonna replace humans is just a pipe dream at this point and may not happen in our lifetimes.

Well, AI doesn't exist yet. It's really just a marketing term that companies use. There's a TV commercial where I live that touts AI Hearing Aids... idiots.

But, the path to real machine intelligence is an exponential curve. We old people have been on the relatively flat part of that curve for most of our lives. I'm pretty sure we're rounding the bottom part of the curve and getting close to the vertical line right now. I'm pretty sure we'll see more advancement in the next ten years than we saw in the last fifty years.

So we're at the beginning of the valley. Computers and automation will start to replace humans in jobs that require intellect (like computer programming, accounting, mathematics, etc.) and, as the robotics technology evolves, it won't be just menial labor jobs that will be taken over by automated devices, even more complex tasks will be performed by machines/computers. There'll be no need for drivers (taxis, truckers, delivery) soon. Farm work and food production will be completely automated.
Robotics development is running behind the computer systems and software right now, but I'm pretty sure the physical systems will catch up soon; smarter computers will accelerate that.

Even the arts, jobs like singing or acting, painting, sculpting are close to being totally replaceable by computers and robots. I think that we humans will accept "art" produced by machines if it's good. At best, it may involve a little bit of human creativity, so you'll have entire movies created by one human and software. Check out Nvidia's current demos, or Unreal Engine to see how close we are to producing photo-realistic video... with very realistic human actors. Human voice (singing) software is getting really good, too.

The end point will be that humans won't have to be involved in the production of anything. As long as the resources are available for the machines to collect and process (like ores and water and energy), all our needs will be provided and we can do things just because we want to, but the transition period between now and then, when more and more people can't get a job and money is still required is probably going to be rough. Governments won't be able to assist because their income from taxes will be constantly diminishing. Combine that with the effects of climate change and geopolitical instability... ugh.

I probably won't be around for the worst part of it, but I'm pretty sure I'll get to see the beginning. Maybe the trend will be good and the benefits of automated systems will compensate for the downsides... we'll see.

It's not the potential malevolence of AI that scares me, it's the humans that create and control them. I don't know if you've noticed, but humans tend to suck... especially the ones that control the large businesses that will run these systems.

Just my dystopian take on the future. ?

[Grem]

14 hours ago, craigb said:

I gave it one, short sentence and, twenty seconds later, it created the following website

Worked well on my Android phone. 

 

10 hours ago, Rain said:

We've lost the there-their-they're battle, and the whole darn war

Yep. It ain't even funny no more!!

10 hours ago, Rain said:

guess we "should OF known".

I sea WHT u did dare!!

10 hours ago, Rain said:

Until they can come up with Artifical Retardation, us humans are virtually irreplacable. 

It may even be impossible to outstupid us

That's two good ones right there!!!

3 hours ago, Bruno de Souza Lino said:

AI lacks the understanding of context, cause and effect, on top of being limited to what its dataset can provide and not being able to create data from different media or abstractions.

Yep. Exactly. 

[Old Joad]

On 4/7/2023 at 9:28 PM, Rain said:

I am guessing that older people like myself are much more worried about AI taking away jobs.

 

 

 

Don't worry, the after the 1st update everyone will get their jobs back.?

[Starship Krupa]

On 4/7/2023 at 9:28 PM, Rain said:

I am guessing that older people like myself are much more worried about AI taking away jobs than the youth is.

You have to have a job in order to be afraid of it being taken away.

[Bruno de Souza Lino]

1 hour ago, Starship Krupa said:

You have to have a job in order to be afraid of it being taken away.

This is the kind of 5D chess AI can't engage with, which is why we'll never lose our jobs.

[PhonoBrainer]

On 4/8/2023 at 1:47 AM, Rain said:

 We've lost the there-their-they're battle, and the whole darn war.

Hold on their a second, I speak to my colleagues about they're concerns and there not too bothered by it.

There saying their is no they're they're.

[msmcleod]

From a job security point of view, AI honestly doesn't bother me - I by that I mean not just for me personally, but for programmers in general.

Everything I've seen from AI (especially ChatGPT) is either "variations on a theme" - i.e. regurgitated code it's scraped from various online resources and paraphrased accordingly, or it requires an incredible in depth of knowledge of how to build an appropriate AI model and source training material.  Also, if you speak to any AI experts, they'll usually try out a few different approaches before settling on the best compromise.

From an analytical point of view, AI is incredible at seeing patterns in huge amount of data that humans would be incapable of.  But from a creative point of view - either in art or engineering, in my opinion it's not there yet.  I've yet to see anything that is really "new", creatively speaking, from AI.

Sure it'll get you results quicker by giving you example code, but you still have to understand it in order to maintain it.

[craigb]

RS is still far more of a problem...

[smallstonefan]

I was recently at a product design summit (I have a software company with about 64 employees). We had around 15 people at this summit to work on a new product design. An architect mentioned to me that her 18 year old daughter was a bit distraught as she wanted to become a programmer but playing with ChatGPT she was amazed at what it could do generating code - and she was questioning her career path.

In addition to running a software company I have also published 15 books on coding (all with major publishers). This is an area I know REALLY well. The parent was a bit amused but I said I think she was spot on with her concerns; I don't know that programming is a long-term viable path for a teenager right now.

While AI isn't there yet, it's much further along than I thought it was (I'm spending quite a bit of time on it and we're looking to do some integration with our product suite). This is not a glorified Google search. In fact, that's where most get it wrong. I tell people it's a conversation, not a query, and you have to treat it as though it has some form of Asperger's - where it doesn't always catch your nuances and you have to continually add clarity to the discussion. Those that understand how to ask the right questions are the ones that will benefit the most.

I figured that creativity would be the last thing ChatGPT could do, but I've been blown away but what it can do with music, writing and creative brainstorming. This is going to change the world - and probably quickly - but in ways we can't quite grasp yet.

For example, ChatGPT and things like it may allow us to solve big problems MUCH faster than we are prepared to handle those repercussions. I don't see Terminator robots in our future,but I could see ChatGPT figuring out how to use robotics efficiently and effectively so that McDonalds only needs a few tech people per location. What do we then do with 150,000 relatively low-skilled workers that need to find jobs? The pace of change in the past was such that change evolved over time - AI has the ability to accelerate change in unmanageable ways.

[Variorum]

Here's a good, rational opinion on AI (ChatGPT in particular) from Tom Scott:

 

[craigb]

8 hours ago, smallstonefan said:

I was recently at a product design summit (I have a software company with about 64 employees). We had around 15 people at this summit to work on a new product design. An architect mentioned to me that her 18 year old daughter was a bit distraught as she wanted to become a programmer but playing with ChatGPT she was amazed at what it could do generating code - and she was questioning her career path.

In addition to running a software company I have also published 15 books on coding (all with major publishers). This is an area I know REALLY well. The parent was a bit amused but I said I think she was spot on with her concerns; I don't know that programming is a long-term viable path for a teenager right now.

While AI isn't there yet, it's much further along than I thought it was (I'm spending quite a bit of time on it and we're looking to do some integration with our product suite). This is not a glorified Google search. In fact, that's where most get it wrong. I tell people it's a conversation, not a query, and you have to treat it as though it has some form of Asperger's - where it doesn't always catch your nuances and you have to continually add clarity to the discussion. Those that understand how to ask the right questions are the ones that will benefit the most.

I figured that creativity would be the last thing ChatGPT could do, but I've been blown away but what it can do with music, writing and creative brainstorming. This is going to change the world - and probably quickly - but in ways we can't quite grasp yet.

For example, ChatGPT and things like it may allow us to solve big problems MUCH faster than we are prepared to handle those repercussions. I don't see Terminator robots in our future,but I could see ChatGPT figuring out how to use robotics efficiently and effectively so that McDonalds only needs a few tech people per location. What do we then do with 150,000 relatively low-skilled workers that need to find jobs? The pace of change in the past was such that change evolved over time - AI has the ability to accelerate change in unmanageable ways.

The guy I'm working with right now is going with me to a Meetup group to discuss ChatGPT applications tomorrow.  We've already created a couple of demo apps that show how companies can use AI to augment their businesses.  I demoed a full, working, website that does a few length conversions where it literally took me about 20 seconds to write the correct question (called a prompt) and it spit out the code.  I only had to click on the copy button, paste it into a text file and name it with an .html extension.  The structure, CSS and HTML along with javascript algorithms were created for me in just a few seconds.

Although I can see this as being a helpful tool, I personally am not a fan and am only involved because it's one of his projects and I needed the work!  Our original demo apps could feed the same prompt to multiple AI models to see how each responded (a few performed really poorly!) and one of our newer ones will feature having two or more (currently up to four) AI models interacting with each other.

I've been programming for over 52 years now but I'm not really sure what career choices I would recommend to young people now!  That said, I'm also in areas that are extremely into the woo-woo areas and both have seen and done things no AI will ever be able to do (and what humans were all able to do at one time though it's being "programmed" out of us).  'Nuff said as they say.

[craigb]

2 hours ago, pwalpwal said:

someone still has to code the ai?

Actually, some CAN code themselves.