Corona Virus - Some Advice

[bayoubill]

It has begun;

 

What exactly is a staging area?

“It’s generally for people who are in assisted living facilities or nursing homes that get tested for coronavirus,” Guichard said.  “While they wait for the result of the test, they will be moved to Lake Bistineau, Chicot or Bayou Segnette to wait. Because they can’t, in case they have the virus, go back to the nursing home or assisted living facility.”  State parks were chosen because officials felt they were isolated enough that risk of infecting another human would be minimal.People renting the cabins were notified Tuesday night they would have to evacuate. Those parks are now closed to the public use until further notice.

[lmu2002]

4 hours ago, Starise said:

I'm not really worried about it. Maybe I should be. I think there's more to this than meets the eye. I don't know exactly what that means.I hope I'm wrong. I really do. I'm not even worried if I get it because I think I would live through it. 

Lots of other people are worried. Reminds me of winter here, when they call for snow everyone goes out and buys bread and milk. 

 If the mortality rate is very good and if it's similar to the flu only maybe more intense, then why are all the medical system overloaded?  I have heard that it's because people need respirators. I have also heard that plenty of people who have it are sent home. There basically is no treatment. It just runs it's course.

In light of that, then the only reasons I can see for the need to go to a hospital are A. You had prior breathing issues. B. For isolation reasons. 

Point B could be handled just as well by sending people home to stay away from  others. What am I missing here? Or did I miss everything? lol.

 

Point A. What's the percentage of population with prior breathing issues?

Point B. People are not very good at staying away from others.

Last point: people will die and money will be lost.

[Mandolin Picker]

10 hours ago, Starise said:

I'm not really worried about it. Maybe I should be. I think there's more to this than meets the eye. I don't know exactly what that means.I hope I'm wrong. I really do. I'm not even worried if I get it because I think I would live through it. 

Lots of other people are worried. Reminds me of winter here, when they call for snow everyone goes out and buys bread and milk. 

 If the mortality rate is very good and if it's similar to the flu only maybe more intense, then why are all the medical system overloaded?  I have heard that it's because people need respirators. I have also heard that plenty of people who have it are sent home. There basically is no treatment. It just runs it's course.

In light of that, then the only reasons I can see for the need to go to a hospital are A. You had prior breathing issues. B. For isolation reasons. 

Point B could be handled just as well by sending people home to stay away from  others. What am I missing here? Or did I miss everything? lol.

 

The Mortality Rate: The hospital problem isn't from the number of patients that die, it is the number of patients that survive. These surviving patients spend a long time in ICU and on a vent. Typically 2-3 weeks (based on what is being seen in Italy). That's a long time to be in ICU. COVID-19 causes a interstitial pneumonia, and right now all we can do is place you on a vent to take over breathing. The pneumonia covers the lining of the lungs, so you don't have the area needed within the lung to exchange oxygen into the blood stream. If you smoke or have an existing lung disease, it makes it that much worse.

Currently in Italy, with the shortage of vents/ICU beds and staff (they have already had a number of doctors succumb to COVID) they have adopted what is called a "Crisis Standard of Care" in which they triage patients who under normal circumstances would qualify for a vent. However, because of COVID-19 if you need a vent (for any reason - not just COVID-19) and are over 65 yoa you will not be placed on a vent - period. If you are under 65 yoa with co-morbid factors, you do not get a vent. So the majority who die are the ones that don't get a vent, don't go to ICU, and die after a few days. The survivors, however, stay in the ICU a long time (2-3 weeks), causing the backup.

When you understand why they need to use this type of  triage system, you also begin to realize that there are a number of deaths you don't hear about - folks who are dying because of injury or illness but can't get an ICU bed or a vent due to the high number of patients being struck down by the virus. If you have a stroke, no vent. If you have a heart attack, no vent. Traumatic brain injury, no vent (remember, under 65 with co-morbid factors - such as heart attack, stroke, TBI). These types of patients in normal circumstances would get an ICU bed and a vent. Most would likely survive. Today they don't. These patients are not included in the statistics you see on the death rate for COVID-19.

As for people following the social distancing, we know that isn't happening the way it needs to occur. It appears the largest age group that is non-compliant is college age to 30s. There are numerous reports of crowded beaches in Florida and Alabama as the college students are on spring break (these beaches and bars were so crowded that the governors of both states shut down all beaches today). Bars and restaurants also report high numbers of this age group. Part of this is likely based on the earlier information where it appeared that the younger age groups only appeared to get mild cases of the virus. However, new data (not from China but rather Italy, Spain and the US) is showing that a significant number of young people are getting seriously ill, but usually survive. Even if these younger folks didn't get real sick (as first thought) they can still pass the virus along to mom and dad, grandma and grandpa, aunts and uncles, etc. 

 

[Tezza]

Frightening.

[Kalle Rantaaho]

16 hours ago, Byron Dickens said:

Jesus H. Christ! Get a grip! 81% who get it have only mild symptoms.  5% of cases become critical.  Mortality rate for those under 20 is. 0001% .  Most people who get it are cured.

 

SARS and the swine flu were both way worse.

Should people take precautions? Of course.  But there's no reason to hoard toilet paper and ammo like it is the zombie apocalypse coming.

 

You are absolutely right. The economic damage is surreal. Get a grip, people!

Now you admitted it yourself. Do count what that 5% of critical cases means in practice. If the peak of the  covid  19 comes too rapidly, the medical care can't handle it. It will paralyze the whole system. You're comforting yourself with the wrong facts. Of course most people get the mild symptoms and are cured,  and the mortality  isn't higher than that at the moment, because the hospitals still function. But that's a feeble comfort if you one day have 100 000 people suffocating due to lack of breathing machines. If the virus can be slowed down, the critical cases can be taken care of.

If, say in the US,  only 100 000 000 people get the virus (about one third), 5% means 5 000 000 critical cases.  If that burst comes within a month or three, it means catastrophy. The estimates are, that 40-80% of the population will eventually get covid 19.

SARS and swine flu were much worse statistically, MERS was the worst, but they did not spread like covid.

Peoples reactions - hoarding toilet paper and whatever - are poor efforts to get a feeling of being in control, being able to do something.

[Starise]

Thanks to those who answered the questions I asked.

I know this likely won't be a popular view because it seems to exclude certain groups of people. In reality though I think it might expedite the process and wouldn't change much for those groups either way.

Why not let the natural process of immunity contain the younger people. Eventually most would be immune by natural process. The remainder could be quarantined. Those above a certain age and those who had prior breathing issues would be the pinpointed group for care. Let everyone else catch it and get over it naturally.

I guess this is what I don't understand. It can be caught. You can get over it and then you have an immunity to it. Apparently there must be many more who have breathing issues than I would have guessed.  "If" I caught it I would just go home and get better. Same as any other virus or flu.

I still think something else is going on.

Edited March 20, 2020 by Starise

[bayoubill]

I wonder if a 70 year old Senator will get a ventilator/ respirator

what if you're a CEO over 65

 

[Sheens]

The immunity theory is a risk at this point, it's not clear yet immunity for this virus will exist.

Among the people here in Europe currently at Intensive Care units, is a large percentage of previously totally healthy 30 to 50 year olds.

Also long term lung damage could be a result (for a percentage).

 

 

Edited March 20, 2020 by Sheens

[Mandolin Picker]

Long term natural immunity from exposure to COVID-19 at this stage is not really known. It is suspected that at least short term immunity to COVID-19 is likely, especially in the young (like children). But like the flu COVID-19 is likely will mutate. That means you can get it again. It is the same reason you get a yearly flu shot. Again, all of this is conjecture at this stage. As we learn more about the virus these questions will be answered. But right now it is too soon to tell.

[lmu2002]

There's already two strains of the virus, and a third one is expected. Who knows how many will follow.

Let's hope we don't  get to the point where we have to decide a specific age which divides the cure/coffin. The elderly or the civilisation.

The economic impact will be a mayhem in a month or two.

[antler]

Don't forget the risk of other non-Covid related scheduled hospital treatments/operations being deferred; and the risk of doctors/nurses getting sick, exacerbating the situation

[Tezza]

9 hours ago, lmu2002 said:

There's already two strains of the virus, and a third one is expected. Who knows how many will follow.

 

 

Exactly, this is what will come, there has never been a pandemic with the current number of people on the planet, more people, more mutations, greater chance of it morphing into something else. It won't be long before the dreaded word appears.......PLAGUE!!!

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by Tezza

[Kalle Rantaaho]

13 hours ago, antler said:

Don't forget the risk of other non-Covid related scheduled hospital treatments/operations being deferred; and the risk of doctors/nurses getting sick, exacerbating the situation

Exactly. When the collapse of medical care is mentioned, this is what people usually forget. That includes the ones who think it would be wise just to let the (assumed) natural immunity develop through the population. It's not only the ones killed by covid 19, it's also the ones who can't be treated due to covid 19 blocking the hospitals.

It's not only that xx thousand people die, but xx times 10  hospital beds are needed for those who eventually survive the critical phase.

 

 

[Tezza]

In Vo, in Italy, they tested everyone in the town of 3300 whether symptomatic or not. They found 89 tested positive for the virus including a lot of people working in the health system, doctors, nurses etc  (which worryingly they classified as a major source of infection) They quarantined the 89 that tested positive and then conducted another mass test, they  have not had any subsequent infections since March 13. Mass testing and quarantine seems successful but perhaps not feasible for large country's.